Welcome to this week’s ponderings….
There are many answers as to what is happening in our immediate area, Brisbane district and interstate markets. Our experience is that activity is a bit “muffled” presently and there are many others who concur with that thought. By “muffled”, I mean the “hype” in activity that was about late last year and earlier this year has quieted down somewhat. Quieted but not stopped.
Normally you would say that low levels = increased competition = higher prices and shorter time on market. Just not happening.
What’s happening is, owners are pricing their properties based on lower stock levels and immediate past activity when buyers were prepared to go that extra mile to acquire a property – buyers are not feeling the pressure to do so. As a result, in broad terms, time on market is extending and prices now edging back.
Similarly, with rentals, rental prices too have backed off a little – that extra $10-20 per week is not happening presently and tenants are not feeling the pressure to go there even though vacancy rates are still at incredibly low levels. Like buyers, tenants also, are not fearful of losing out.
Why is this so? The information coming forward is contra to what is actually happening and different from different quarters at many different levels.
To give you some idea, I came across a report on internal migration to Queensland the other day from what looked to be “Official” and there are some interesting numbers.
Migration into Brisbane Metro 846 with Sunshine Coast at 5,709 and Moreton Bay 5,110 amongst others with the suggestion of the report being, that Brisbane market is falling, and outer regions were booming.
Then I hear another “report” that movement into the Sunshine Coast is 10,000 directly contradicting the figures I have above at 5,709.
Then there are talks of massive migration of interest to Queensland particularly the South East region as being the place to invest for assured capital gains out into the future as southern states lose their edge along with reports of dramatic drops in those markets. So, who do we believe?
Believe what buyers are doing. They are finding it more difficult to get oversized and underpriced loans (banks tightening up), which impacts all buyers not just investors or owner occupiers. They tell me they are concerned about global impact on our economy and recent media reports on the massive housing debt on which our economy has apparently been surviving – just to name a few concerns.
Then hear what our real estate colleagues have to say about good movement in Brisbane and on the Sunshine Coast with healthy prices being paid but not increasing.
Now, maybe part of the reason stock is low is that owners are telling me why should we sell?
What, where and when are we going to buy? Or still saying they will wait until prices increase again.
Either way, end result of low stock levels exacerbated by buyers who won’t pay what the owners who are in the market want or need to change over into something else. No wonder the mufflers are on.
Hell, what a picture, will this go on forever, no we all know it won’t.
Will the market improve or get worse? Once it has done what it does we will all tell each other how it happened and why, but the reality is we don’t really know. We all just make reasonably intelligent guesses.
What we do know is what the buyers are doing and if you are thinking of selling, listen to that and make your decisions based on Why you are moving on not only on What you hope to gain.
As I have mentioned before, if a buyer’s and seller’s Whys are clear enough and the right level of desire and value is established, then they will meet at a place that is near perfect for each other.
At the end of the day, none of us, including the market, will stay muffled forever.
Until next time, take off the mufflers, let fly and go buy or sell the dream based on what is actually happening in your world not only what the “gurus” suggest. Clearly define your Why and don’t get caught up in the decline. If you’re thinking of selling now is a great time
PS In case you haven’t noticed, the rain has stopped and skies are brilliantly blue – well today at least…..